Risk Analysis: from Perception to Prediction

6th Society for Risk Analysis Europe Nordic Chapter conference

5-6th November, 2020
Kaunas, Lithuania

Photo Gallery of the Conference


About the Conference

Society for Risk Analysis Europe Nordic Chapter invites to the yearly meeting of risk researchers and practitioners. Conference will provide interdisciplinary forum to discuss current research  on risk assessment, risk perception, risk communication, risk management, and policy relating to risk.  

More about SRA-Europe Nordic: 

We have a list of exciting keynotes and workshops, covering risk communication and management in times of Covid-19 pandemic, presenting innovative tools for risk assessment, management and prediction.  

Topics of conference include (but are not limited to): 

  1. Current research in risk analysis; 
  2. New challenges for risk analysis in the face of pandemic; 
  3. Risk analysis methods and methodologies; 
  4. Risk perception and communication; 
  5. Risk management – innovative methods and intersectorial cooperation; 
  6. Risk prediction – methods, tools and challenges; 
  7. Application of computerized analysis tools for risk analysis 
  8. Other 

Conference is organized by: Civil Society and Sustainability research group, Faculty of Social Sciences, Arts and Humanities, Kaunas University of Technology.

Frederic Bouder “Governing risk and uncertainty in the post Covid-19 environment”

President, Society for Risk Analysis Europe
University of Stavanger, Norway

Despite the existence of international and national pandemic surveillance mechanisms, management standards and contingency plans, it seems fair to say that the COVID19 pandemic has taken the world by surprise. The assessment and management of the Coronavirus risks have been full of unexpected outcomes, surprises and, to a degree, even U-turns and confusion. We have witnessed evolving claims about transmission channels and severity, hesitated about the best medicines, heard competing views about the appropriate steps to control and manage the pandemic. Some of these steps – such as the dramatic “lockdowns” – are likely to have lasting consequences. Objectives themselves have been unclear – e.g. should we tolerate, contain or eradicate the disease?- As well as prospects of resolution: will the pandemic exhaust itself? Is a vaccine in sight? Faced with these unprecedented challenges, government have resorted to different strategies and mechanisms to channel evidence into policy and support their actions. One year after the first outbreak in Wuhan, China, it is now time to look critically at the governance of the Coronavirus risk. Does the response to Covid-19 follow traditional Risk Analysis or does it depart from it?  Do we see the emergence of a “new normal” in the way major risks are tackled? Can risk scientists help to shape the post-Covid19 environment? Answering these puzzling questions will be the aim of this plenary talk.

Anna Oloffson  “Risk communication in times of crisis“

Professor in Sociology, Dean of Faculty of Human Sciences (HUV), Member of SRA – E board
Mid-Sweden University, Sweden

This presentation addresses the challenges of communicating risk in times of crisis and uses the Swedish management of the current Covid-19 pandemic as an empirical example. Compared to other Northern European countries and countries around the world, Sweden has managed the Covid-19 pandemic in a different manner with no lock downs, less regulation and more voluntary action expected of citizens and organizations. This kind of governing of conduct targets the self-regulating individual in terms of not only trust but also solidarity. The questions posed in the presentation are: How was this communicated and with what consequences? Because, crises do not strike equally across populations and that is true also for the Covid-19 pandemic. In Sweden, and particularly the capital region Stockholm, it is not only the elderly that has suffered the consequences of the pandemic but also the inhabitants of segregated and economically vulnerable suburbs.

Saulius Urbanas, Mantas Butrimavičius “Innovative Geospatial Tools for Intelligent Risk Management”

Dr. Saulius Urbanas, Chief Marketing Officer
Mantas Butrimavičius, Business Development Manager
Hnit- Baltic, Lithuania 

Location intelligence and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) significantly increase a scope and value of risk data analysis. The presentation briefs on available data sources and a range of geospatial applications in Lithuania and worldwide, supporting risk analysis related topics: emergency management, risk prediction, risk mitigation, situation awareness, etc. Step into the “World of GIS” and find-out new prospects and ideas applying innovative Geospatial methods in research and practical implementation of intelligent Risk Management solutions.

Please register on the following workshops you would like to attend during SRA-E Nordic conference on the 5-6th of October, 2020:


Workshop I

Uncertainty analysis for predictive assessments 

Ulrika Sahlin, Senior lecturer, Centre for Environmental and Climate Research, Lund University, Sweden 

Risk assessment must deal with uncertainty due to limitations in knowledge when making predictions about the future. Imagine that you were asked to predict the number of COVID-19 deaths in the world. In this workshop, we will go through the task of uncertainty analysis related to the above challenge with the aim to support an honest communication of uncertainty. We will consider uncertainty in expert elicitation, uncertainty related to assessment models informed by data and expert knowledge, and uncertainty related to future development of the pandemic.  


Workshop II

Designing messages and organizing risk communication 

Audronė Telešienė, Professor in Environmental sociology Civil Society and Sustainability research group, Kaunas University of Technology, Lithuania 

This workshop aims at critically discussing the content of risk communication. We will inquiry a sample of risk messages to deconstruct their designs and conveyed meanings. A list of criteria will be discussed and used for coding and analysing the messages. This will lead us to a practical simulation exercise and designing of risk messages directed at diverse audiences. The importance of gender neutral language and bias-free language will be also discussed. 


Workshop III

Topic-networks for risk analysis” 

Florian Rabitz, Senior researcher, Kaunas university of technology, Lithuania 

This workshop gives a practical introduction to the use of network analysis on data generated with Correlated Topic Models. This approach enables the mapping of semantic structures, for instance in regards to the mass media coverage of technological or health risks, and their analysis via network-analytic tools. We will be using the igraph and stm packages, so basic familiarity with R is an asset. Code and example data will be provided. The workshop is supported by Kaunas University of Technology Research, Development and Innovation Fund grant no. PP59/2016, A Topic-network Approach to the Mass Media Representation of Pandemic Threats. 


Paying the fee for presenters: 23rd October 

Paying the fee for participants without presentation: 30rd October 

Go to registration form

General inquiries

Registration fees, payments 


Main Information

Regular: 50 Euros 
PhD students: 30 Euros  

Payment information 

Please direct your payment to:

Beneficiary Name:Kauno technologijos universitetas
Beneficiary’s account or IBAN: LT387044060003104481
Address: K. Donelaičio g. 73, LT-44029 Kaunas, Lithuania
Beneficiary’s country: Lithuania
Beneficiary‘s Bank:
Name: AB SEB bankas
Address:Gedimino pr. 12, LT-01103 Vilnius, Lithuania

Please specify in “Purpose of Payment (Details)”: KO055, SRA Nordic, First Name Last Name 


Kaunas is the second-largest city in Lithuania and has historically been a leading centre of Lithuanian economic, academic and cultural life. The centre of Kaunas is divided into the Old and the New Town. The Old Town is a remarkable archaeological monument and an architectural masterpiece incorporating Gothic, Renaissance and Baroque styles. It is a concentration of the ancient architectural monuments, such as the remnants of the 13th century castle, the impressive Town Hall, popularly known as the White Swan, and the Vilnius street, a characteristic trade street of the Middle Ages. The New Town is represented by Laisvės alėja or tLiberty Avenue – a central pedestrian street often called the ‘Heart of Kaunas’ where numerous hotels, shops, restaurants, cafes and bars are located. Kaunas is famous for M. K. Čiurlionis Art Gallery where you can find the unique collection of works painted by the famous Lithuanian painter and composer M. K. Čiurlionis. The conference venue is located in the centre of Kaunas and within walking distance to various interesting places. Due to its geographical position, today, Kaunas is Lithuania’s most important centre of communication. It is a home of a variety of festivals & events, from operettas to modern dance, from classical music to Jazz. Kaunas was chosen as the European Capital of Culture 2022. The city is famous for its Interwar architecture, which was awarded the European Heritage label and is on its way to UNESCO.

Between 1920 and 1940, Kaunas was the temporary capital of Lithuania. The fast-growing city became a cradle of the Lithuanian intelligentsia and culture. On December 2015, Kaunas became the first city in Eastern and Central Europe to win the status of UNESCO City of Design.


Kaunas University of Technology is a leading Lithuanian University providing a wide range of studies and closely cooperating with businesses. The University provides studies of engineering, technologies, physical and social sciences, humanities and arts. The research groups working at KTU contribute to the global scientific knowledge by conducting cutting-edge interdisciplinary research on the most important questions of current time.



Kaunas university of technology (KTU):

Aistė Balžekienė (Chair)
Principal investigator, Civil Society and Sustainability research group


Robertas Alzbutas
Principal investigator, Data analytics and modeling research group 



General inquiries:

Inquiries about payment:  Giedrius Žvaliauskas 

Society for Risk analysis Nordic Chapter board: 

  • Aistė Balžekienė, Kaunas University of Technology, Lithuania (Chair)
  • Marja Ylönen, Technical Research Centre of Finland,  
  • Ullrika Sahlin, Lund University, Sweden 
  • Sima Rastayesh, Aalborg University, Denmark  
  • Frederic Bouder, University of Stavanger, Norway 
  • Sakari Kuikka, University of Helsinki, Finland 
  • Igor Kozine, Technical University of Denmark, Denmark