Risk Analysis: from Perception to Prediction

6th Society for Risk Analysis Europe Nordic Chapter conference

5-6th November, 2020
Kaunas, Lithuania


About the Conference

Society for Risk Analysis Europe Nordic Chapter invites to the yearly meeting of risk researchers and practitioners. Conference will provide interdisciplinary forum to discuss current research  on risk assessment, risk perception, risk communication, risk management, and policy relating to risk.  

More about SRA-Europe Nordic: http://www.sraeurope.eu/nordic-chapter 

Due to high uncertainty related to COVID-19, virtual participation in the conference will be possible. However we have high hopes to be able to welcome you in Kaunas in November, 2020! 

We have a list of exciting keynotes and workshops, covering risk communication and management in times of Covid-19 pandemic, presenting innovative tools for risk assessment, management and prediction.  

Please contribute with your abstract by 29th of  August. 

Topics of conference include (but are not limited to): 

  1. Current research in risk analysis; 
  2. New challenges for risk analysis in the face of pandemic; 
  3. Risk analysis methods and methodologies; 
  4. Risk perception and communication; 
  5. Risk management – innovative methods and intersectorial cooperation; 
  6. Risk prediction – methods, tools and challenges; 
  7. Application of computerized analysis tools for risk analysis 
  8. Other 

Conference is organized by: Civil Society and Sustainability research group, Faculty of Social Sciences, Arts and Humanities, Kaunas University of Technology.

Frederic Emmanuel Bouder “Governing risk and uncertainty in the post Covid-19 environment”

President, Society for Risk Analysis Europe
University of Stavanger, Norway




Anna Oloffson  “Risk communication in times of crisis“

Professor in Sociology, Dean of Faculty of Human Sciences (HUV), Member of SRA – E board
Mid-Sweden University, Sweden

This presentation addresses the challenges of communicating risk in times of crisis and uses the Swedish management of the current Covid-19 pandemic as an empirical example. Compared to other Northern European countries and countries around the world, Sweden has managed the Covid-19 pandemic in a different manner with no lock downs, less regulation and more voluntary action expected of citizens and organizations. This kind of governing of conduct targets the self-regulating individual in terms of not only trust but also solidarity. The questions posed in the presentation are: How was this communicated and with what consequences? Because, crises do not strike equally across populations and that is true also for the Covid-19 pandemic. In Sweden, and particularly the capital region Stockholm, it is not only the elderly that has suffered the consequences of the pandemic but also the inhabitants of segregated and economically vulnerable suburbs.

Saulius Urbanas, Mantas Butrimavičius “Innovative Geospatial Tools for Intelligent Risk Management”

Dr. Saulius Urbanas, Chief Marketing Officer
Mantas Butrimavičius, Business Development Manager
Hnit- Baltic, Lithuania 

Location intelligence and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) significantly increase a scope and value of risk data analysis. The presentation briefs on available data sources and a range of geospatial applications in Lithuania and worldwide, supporting risk analysis related topics: emergency management, risk prediction, risk mitigation, situation awareness, etc. Step into the “World of GIS” and find-out new prospects and ideas applying innovative Geospatial methods in research and practical implementation of intelligent Risk Management solutions.

Workshop I

Uncertainty analysis for predictive assessments 

Ulrika Sahlin, Senior lecturer, Centre for Environmental and Climate Research, Lund University, Sweden 

Risk assessment must deal with uncertainty due to limitations in knowledge when making predictions about the future. Imagine that you were asked to predict the number of COVID-19 deaths in the world. In this workshop, we will go through the task of uncertainty analysis related to the above challenge with the aim to support an honest communication of uncertainty. We will consider uncertainty in expert elicitation, uncertainty related to assessment models informed by data and expert knowledge, and uncertainty related to future development of the pandemic.  


Workshop II

Designing messages and organizing risk communication 

Audronė Telešienė, Professor in Environmental sociology Civil Society and Sustainability research group, Kaunas University of Technology, Lithuania 

This workshop aims at critically discussing the content of risk communication. We will inquiry a sample of risk messages to deconstruct their designs and conveyed meanings. A list of criteria will be discussed and used for coding and analysing the messages. This will lead us to a practical simulation exercise and designing of risk messages directed at diverse audiences. The importance of gender neutral language and bias-free language will be also discussed. 


Workshop III

Addressing differences in risk perspective within inter and transdisciplinary teams 

Kelsey LaMere, Faculty of Biological and Environmental Sciences, The University of Helsinki, Finland 

Modern problem solving work is often done within the context of inter and even transdisciplinary teams, characterized by the diversity of perspectives they bring to the table, including perspectives about the concept of risk. This multiplicity of viewpoints can serve as a team’s greatest strength, spurring creativity and innovation, however, it can also lead to miscommunication and frustration within the working group. This workshop is intended to help participants learn to identify differences in risk perspective and leverage their benefits for more effective team work. Participants should prepare themselves for discussion and work in small groups.  


Workshop IV

Topic-networks for risk analysis” 

Florian Rabitz, Senior researcher, Kaunas university of technology, Lithuania 

This workshop gives a practical introduction to the use of network analysis on data generated with Correlated Topic Models. This approach enables the mapping of semantic structures, for instance in regards to the mass media coverage of technological or health risks, and their analysis via network-analytic tools. We will be using the igraph and stm packages, so basic familiarity with R is an asset. Code and example data will be provided. The workshop is supported by Kaunas University of Technology Research, Development and Innovation Fund grant no. PP59/2016, A Topic-network Approach to the Mass Media Representation of Pandemic Threats. 

Abstract (~250 words)  

Deadline: August 28, 2020 

Acceptance letters: September 10, 2020 

Registration fee due to: October 15, 2020 

Go to registration form

General inquiries


Registration fees, payments


Main Information

Regular: 150 Euros 
PhD students: 100 Euros  

Payment information 

Please direct your payment to:

Beneficiary Name:Kauno technologijos universitetas
Beneficiary’s account or IBAN: LT387044060003104481
Address: K. Donelaičio g. 73, LT-44029 Kaunas, Lithuania
Beneficiary’s country: Lithuania
Beneficiary‘s Bank:
Name: AB SEB bankas
Address:Gedimino pr. 12, LT-01103 Vilnius, Lithuania

Please specify in “Purpose of Payment (Details)”: KO055, SRA Nordic, First Name Last Name 


Participants may fly to and from Kaunas and Vilnius airports.

Traveling to and from Kaunas airport (in Lithuanian – Kauno oro uostas)

Bus No. 29 connects Kaunas International Airport with the city centre.  The journey takes about 45 minutes with the bus timetable being coordinated with flight schedules. A taxi service is available for those who need a speedier transfer. The taxi can be hailed on the streets, called by phone or using mobile App. The average price for one kilometer by taxi is 0,70 EUR or you can use Taxify in Kaunas. Wherever you are in the beautiful city of Kaunas, from Defensive medieval Kaunas Castle to Town Hall Square at the heart of the Old Town Kaunas, Taxify is just a tap of a button away.

Traveling to and from Vilnius airport (in Lithuanian – Vilniaus oro uostas).

From Vilnius Airport there are frequent train and bus connections to Kaunas (please also see below arriving by train and arriving by bus).The journey takes about 1-1,5 hours.

There are  several ways to get from Vilnius Airport (VNO) to Kaunas: by bus, train or car. Vilnius Airport is located approximately 100 km from Kaunas and it takes approx. 1 hour to travel by car. By intercity bus or train it takes 1-1,5 hour at a price of 6-10 euros.

Bus tickets and schedule

Train tickets

You can reach bus and train stations in Vilnius from the airport by taxi at a cost of 4-5 eur (see the route here) or by bus No. 1 (the stop is located in front of the airport arrivals hall) for €1 (see the route here).


Local and international bus transfers are provided by Kautra, Eurolines, Ecolines and TOKS. Timetables.


Kaunas can be reached easily by train from both Lithuanian and international cities. The railway station is in a convenient location as it takes barely 15 minutes on foot to reach the central city street Liberty Avenue (Laisvės Alėja). For the arriving by train from Vilnius and Vilnius airport, you can purchase train tickets online.


Buses, trolleybuses and minibuses. There are two types of tickets: A single use paper ticket and E-ticket (periodic for 3, 7, 30 or 92 days). Trolleybuses and buses run from 4:30 a.m. until 10:30 p.m. Payments for Kaunas city public transport are made with the help of non-contact electronic ticket (CARD) system. You may transfer different sums of money from your e-purse onto the CARD  and/or pay for certain kinds of e-ticket (of 3, 7, 30 and 92 days) periodically. You may buy the CARD at the newspaper stands or in the places marked by the special sign “Kauno Viešasis Transportas” (KVT) (Kaunas Public Transport). You must always have your card when getting on the means of transport.

The tickets purchased from the driver do not have to be validated by a ticket puncher. Passengers must get on the bus through the front door and validate e-tickets or buy a single-use ticket from  the driver. If there is a possibility, you should get off the bus through the back/middle door. You may check Kaunas public transport routes and schedules here.

Please note that participants are expected to make their own travel arrangements and hotel reservations.

Hotels recommended by organizers


**** Hotel EUROPA ROYALE Kaunas
Misko str. 11,
LT-44321 Kaunas, Lithuania

For  reservation at please contact the manager:

Europa Royale Kaunas is  a luxurous hotel located in the city centre at a walkable  distance to the conference venue (up to 10 min to walk).


****Hotel KAUNAS

Laisves av. 79, Kaunas, LT-44297, Lithuania
For Reservation please contact the manager:

Hotel Kaunas is located in the heart of the city at a walkable  distance to the conference venue ( approx. 10 min. to walk).


Laisves av. 90, Kaunas
+370 37 220 220
Additional information may be found on the official page:

Hotel Kaunas City is an economy class hotel located is in the heart of Kaunas at a walkable distance from conference venue (uo to 15 min. to walk)
Room prices at the hotel may vary depending on availability, please consult official hotel website for booking rates during your stay in Kaunas.


****BEST WESTERN Santaka Hotel Kaunas

Gruodžio g. 21, LT–44293 Kaunas, Lithuania
Phone: +370 37 302702, 302701
Fax: +370 37 302700
E-mail: hotel@santakahotel.eu

Additional information may be found on the official page:


The hotel is located in historical downtown within walking distance conference venue ( approx. 20 min.)


***IBIS KAUNAS Centre Hotel

Vytauto av. 28, LT-44328 Kaunas, Lietuva
Phone: (+370)37/265600
Fax: (+370)37/265666
Email: h8622@accor.com
Additional information may be found on the official page:


The IBIS Kaunas Centre hotel is located in the centre of Kaunas, close to railway and bus stations, 2-3 bus tops away from conference venue or walk approx. 25 min


Kaunas is the second-largest city in Lithuania and has historically been a leading centre of Lithuanian economic, academic and cultural life. The centre of Kaunas is divided into the Old and the New Town. The Old Town is a remarkable archaeological monument and an architectural masterpiece incorporating Gothic, Renaissance and Baroque styles. It is a concentration of the ancient architectural monuments, such as the remnants of the 13th century castle, the impressive Town Hall, popularly known as the White Swan, and the Vilnius street, a characteristic trade street of the Middle Ages. The New Town is represented by Laisvės alėja or tLiberty Avenue – a central pedestrian street often called the ‘Heart of Kaunas’ where numerous hotels, shops, restaurants, cafes and bars are located. Kaunas is famous for M. K. Čiurlionis Art Gallery where you can find the unique collection of works painted by the famous Lithuanian painter and composer M. K. Čiurlionis. The conference venue is located in the centre of Kaunas and within walking distance to various interesting places. Due to its geographical position, today, Kaunas is Lithuania’s most important centre of communication. It is a home of a variety of festivals & events, from operettas to modern dance, from classical music to Jazz. Kaunas was chosen as the European Capital of Culture 2022. The city is famous for its Interwar architecture, which was awarded the European Heritage label and is on its way to UNESCO.

Between 1920 and 1940, Kaunas was the temporary capital of Lithuania. The fast-growing city became a cradle of the Lithuanian intelligentsia and culture. On December 2015, Kaunas became the first city in Eastern and Central Europe to win the status of UNESCO City of Design.


Kaunas University of Technology is a leading Lithuanian University providing a wide range of studies and closely cooperating with businesses. The University provides studies of engineering, technologies, physical and social sciences, humanities and arts. The research groups working at KTU contribute to the global scientific knowledge by conducting cutting-edge interdisciplinary research on the most important questions of current time.



Kaunas university of technology (KTU):

Aistė Balžekienė (Chair)
Principal investigator, Civil Society and Sustainability research group 



Robertas Alzbutas
Principal investigator, Data analytics and modeling research group 



General inquiries:  sran@ktu.lt

Inquiries about payment:  Giedrius Žvaliauskas giedrius.zvaliauskas@ktu.lt 

Society for Risk analysis Nordic Chapter board: 

  • Aistė Balžekienė, Kaunas University of Technology, Lithuania (Chair)
  • Marja Ylönen, Technical Research Centre of Finland,  
  • Ullrika Sahlin, Lund University, Sweden 
  • Sima Rastayesh, Aalborg University, Denmark  
  • Frederic Bouder, University of Stavanger, Norway 
  • Sakari Kuikka, University of Helsinki, Finland 
  • Igor Kozine, Technical University of Denmark, Denmark
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